Yet the trajectories of decline (once it started) were similar over the course of the urban and rural transitions.

When the decline also started in rural areas, the fertility gradient by place of residence began to shrink, as the early pace of the rural decline was more sustained when compared to that in the more advanced transitional stage reached in urban areas. Rural excess fertility increased due to the earlier onset of the fertility transition in urban areas. A recent longitudinal re-appraisal of urban and rural fertility trends has confirmed this model : on average in developing countries, the rural-urban gradient followed an inverted U-shaped evolution over time, as suggested by earlier cross-sectional studies. Īccording to spatial diffusion theory, the structural and ideational changes in society that motivate lower fertility spread from cities into peripheral areas during the process of regional development and integration. Individualization and cultural diversification in dense urban populations further accelerate the pace of innovation diffusion within cities. The interconnectedness of the developing regions’ urban societies with countries that are more advanced in the fertility transition hastens the onset of behavioral changes. In an urban society, cultural change is particularly fast because of more intense social interaction when compared to a dispersed rural population.

On the other hand, cultural differences also matter for the diffusion of the small family ideal. Desires to have fewer children can thus be more effectively implemented. The delivery of modern methods of family planning is also more efficient in spatially concentrated populations. The financial and opportunity costs of childbearing increase with the monetarization of society, the expansion of higher level education, and the new avenues for socioeconomic mobility opened up by the development of industrial and service employment. On the one hand, the earlier and faster pace of structural changes in urban societies leads to lower fertility compared to that of rural populations. The transformation from a predominantly rural to a predominantly urban society affects the cultural and socioeconomic environment of human reproduction. The study of regional differentials in the urban-rural fertility gradient over time therefore helps to conceptualise future fertility developments and the geography of urban growth in the global South.

The two sub-groups also represent almost equal shares of the population of developing countries since 2015. The comparison of trends by type of residence location is relevant not only because the contexts of reproductive decision making are different for rural and urban inhabitants. A better understanding of these varying pathways towards low fertility can be gained by focusing on fertility differences within populations over time. However, women in sub-Saharan Africa were still having more than five children on average. Starting in the 1960s, the fertility transition was almost complete in Asia and Latin America by 2010–15. These differences stem from variations in the urban-to-rural diffusion of the onset of fertility transition and, in sub-Saharan Africa, from a slower pace of decline in rural areas. In sub-Saharan Africa it increased monotonically until the most recent cohorts. In Asia, rural excess fertility remained limited. We found a clearly inverted U-shaped trend in the rural-urban fertility gradient in Latin America, the Middle East and Northern Africa. The regional comparison is controlled for the international heterogeneity in the stages attained in the fertility transition and the context of urbanization. Using multiple surveys for 60 developing countries, we analyze long-term rural and urban trends in cohort fertility. We question whether the hypothesized inverted U-shaped evolution in rural excess fertility is confirmed in four developing regions, and investigate the underlying fertility dynamics by place of residence. The study of regional trends in the rural-urban fertility gradient helps us to understand the pace of completion of the fertility transition and the geography of urban growth in the global South.

Rural life in middle east